Stay in the loop with our weekly updates. A quick global event summary from our portfolio managers for informed conversations with clients.

Issue 273 | 22nd December 2025

UK

• The Bank of England cut the base rate to 3.75%, following a vote of 5-4 in favour of the cut from the Monetary Policy Committee. Comments from Governor Andrew Bailey stated that rates are likely to continue on a ‘gradual downward path’, but that further cuts would ‘become a closer call’.
   
• UK inflation eased to 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October and below expectations of 3.5%. A cooling of both core inflation – which excludes energy and food – and services inflation contributed to the lower headline figure.
   
• Unemployment rose to 5.1% in the quarter to October, up from 5.0%, while average pay growth fell marginally from 4.8% to 4.7%. Employment had been expected to decline by 75,000 but instead fell by just 16,000.
   
• The UK’s official house price index rose by 1.7% year-on-year in October, easing from the 2.0% gain seen in September (a downward revision from the 2.6% previous reported). Nationwide expects UK house price growth of between 2% and 4% in 2026.
   
• The preliminary reading of the UK composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) saw a rise to 52.1 for December. This was up from 51.2 in November, and comfortably above the consensus of 51.5, with increases in both services and manufacturing.
   
• Retail sales rose by 0.6% in the quarter to November, compared with the three months prior, with strong performance seen across clothing, technology and furniture. However, the Office for National Statistics did highlight that Black Friday fell within the reporting period, boosting some categories.

North America

• Inflation in the US rose by 2.7% in the year to November. This was down from 3.0% in September, with October’s inflation report falling victim to the government shutdown. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6%.
   
• US jobs data showed that 105,000 jobs were lost in October, with 64,000 added back in November. The unemployment rate climbing to 4.6% which is a four-year high.
   
• Retail sales were unchanged in October, marginally below the forecast growth of 0.1%.

Europe

• The European Central Bank saw a unanimous vote to hold its interest rate steady at 2.00%, whilst also increasing its growth projections from those announced in September. Growth forecasts have been revised upwards to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in both 2027 and 2028.

Asia

• The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percent to 0.75%. This is the first-time rates have increased since January, and the highest rate the country has seen in 30 years.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, The Guardian, Proactive Investors, BBC, Oxford Economics, FactSet 

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