Stay in the loop with our weekly updates. A quick global event summary from our portfolio managers for informed conversations with clients.

Issue 267 | 10th November 2025

UK

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to hold interest rates at 4.0%. The four dissenters – Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor – voted for a 25 basis point cut. After the decision, Governor Andrew Bailey noted "upside risks to inflation have become less pressing" and that "the latest CPI data was promising."
   
• The S&P Global composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded from 50.1 in September to 52.2 in October, while services PMI improved from 50.8 to 52.3. Domestic customers appear to have shrugged off uncertainty around the upcoming Budget, but a difficult international trading environment ensured foreign demand remained modest.
   
• UK house prices increased by 0.6% in October according to lender Halifax. It reported that the average UK home value increased by approximately £1,650 to £299,862, a new record. October’s annual rate of house inflation increased from 1.3% in September to 1.9%.

North America

• The US federal government shutdown became the longest on record last week, which appeared to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about the ongoing lack of government data and the potential impact of the shutdown on gross domestic product (GDP) growth also increased.
   
• With the shutdown hampering key economic data releases, investors paid more attention to private sector releases to understand the trajectory of the US economy. ADP’s October employment report showed private employers added 42,000 jobs, a rebound after two months of declining data. However, the report also noted that hiring was not broad-based, as employers across professional services and leisure and hospitality industries cut jobs for the third consecutive month, while pay growth remained unchanged.
   
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion territory in October, with the ISM Services PMI recorded at 52.4, against September’s 50.0. New orders in the sector rose to the highest level since October 2024, with an index reading of 56.2.
   
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell 6% in October, led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and a 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions. Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu stated “with the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy. This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation.”

Europe

• October’s HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI figure was revised upwards from the flash estimate of 52.2 to 52.5 3. At face value, this 29-month high, in line with its long-run average, signalled a pickup in growth momentum.
   
• However, Germany's industrial production expanded by 1.3% month-on-month in September, a disappointing rebound after the 3.7% drop in August. August’s  data was revised up by only 0.6%, less than what many economists had hoped, and leaving questions over the country’s ongoing industrial weakness.

Asia

• Investor sentiment improved after the US and China reached a one-year truce in their trade dispute following the meeting of presidents at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea the previous week.
   
• In her first public address as Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi emphasised that Japan had not yet achieved sustainable and stable price growth backed by solid wage gains. She said her government will expand fiscal policy to boost incomes and improve consumer sentiment. The first draft of an economic stimulus package is expected sometime this month.

Global

• Global equity markets saw higher volatility last week, amid investor concerns that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom could be over. The US, Asia and Europe reported the sharpest market movements after several chief executives and influential figures warned that AI companies were overvalued, and a serious correction was ahead.
   
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that world food commodity prices fell in October, adding to a drop in September, due to ample global supplies. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 126.4 points in October, down from a revised 128.5 in September. This figure is now down 21.1% from the record set in March 2022.
   
   

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, The Guardian, Proactive Investors, BBC, Oxford Economics, FactSet.

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